We pick fights.
We post the math.
We grade it in public.
A machine-built prediction model for MMA, validated on 709 fights it had never seen. Every pick locked and timestamped before the walkouts. Every result graded on the record, wins and losses alike.
Every tout says they win. We built the receipts.
Handicappers delete their bad weekends. Cagemath can't. Picks go into the ledger before the fight with a timestamp, a probability, and the market odds at lock time. After the fight, the result is stamped next to it forever. That page is public. That's the product.
Built on every fight, not vibes
A rating system over the entire sport's fight graph plus round-by-round striking, takedown, and control data from every UFC fight in history. No narratives, no favorites played.
Percentages that mean something
When we say 75%, our picks at 75% have historically won 78% of the time. Calibration is tested on fights the model never trained on, and we publish the table below.
We show you the market too
Each pick comes with the betting market's own probability next to ours. When the model and the market disagree hard, you'll see it flagged. Those are the picks people pay for.
Graded in public, forever
Wins and losses both go on the permanent record automatically when results come in. No deleted tweets, no "we went 9-1" with a straight face. Check us any time.
Does the number mean what it says?
Stated confidence versus what actually happened, across 709 fights the model predicted blind. This is the table every picks service should publish and none do.
| When the model says | The pick actually wins |
|---|---|
| 50-59% | 57.6% |
| 60-69% | 71.1% |
| 70-79% | 77.8% |
| 80-89% | 80.2% |
| 90-99% | 97.4% |
One membership. All the math.
- Every pick for every UFC card, locked before fight night
- Calibrated win probability on each fight
- Market comparison and value flags
- The full graded ledger, forever
- Cancel anytime in two clicks