The Record
Every graded pick we've ever made. Timestamped before the fight, graded after. Nothing removed, ever.
0
picks graded
0
winners
—
hit rate
74.6%
pre-launch validation (709 bouts)
The ledger opens with the next card
Our first locked picks are on the board now and will be graded here the moment official results land. Before launch, the model was validated on 709 fights it had never seen: 74.4% / 75.2% / 74.2% accuracy across three separate 20-card windows. From today forward, the proof happens on this page.
How honest is the number itself?
Accuracy alone can be gamed by only picking favorites. The harder test is calibration: when we say a percentage, does reality agree? Measured on 709 blind predictions before launch:
| When the model says | The pick actually wins |
|---|---|
| 50-59% | 57.6% |
| 60-69% | 71.1% |
| 70-79% | 77.8% |
| 80-89% | 80.2% |
| 90-99% | 97.4% |