UFC Fight Night 292 - Moicano vs. Nolan

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2026-10-31 · picks locked Oct 24, 17:00 UTC · CORTEX SHARP V10 ·

Zachary Reese
over Mickey Gall
market 73.6% best: FanDuel -294 3u
80.0%
model win prob
Zachary Reese VS Mickey Gall
Zachary Reese80%
Mickey Gall
STRONG PICK Bet (set your budget above) at FanDuel

Reese has stayed busier, and Reese rates higher on our whole-career strength rating. We have it at 77%. Analyst check: Gall returns off a near-two-year layoff and a September medical-clearance pull-out to debut at middleweight on a four-fight losing skid, modestly reinforcing the already-favored Reese.

shop the line: 13 books priced
FanDuel -294Pinnacle -316Novig -317DraftKings -323ProphetX -325Bovada -333BetOnline.ag -345BetAnything -345BetUS -345Hard Rock Bet -345betPARX -357BetRivers -357Bally Bet -357
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Every pick carries the same set of numbers. Here is what each one means and why it is there.

73.5%

Our calibrated probability that the pick wins. When we say 75%, picks like it have historically won about 77% of the time. The calibration table on the record page is the receipt.

market 61.0%

What the betting market thinks, with the bookmaker's margin stripped out. The gap between our number and this one is the whole product.

best: FanDuel -140

The sportsbook currently paying the most on our side. Same bet, better price. Line shopping is free money most bettors leave on the table.

line 55.0% → 58.1%

Line movement since we locked. The market's no-vig number on our side at lock time versus right now. Green means the line is chasing our pick: the early price members got is already gone. That gap is why picks lock Friday.

VALUE +12% EV

Expected value. Flagged only when the price is good enough that the bet profits long term even after we shade our number toward the market's. These are the picks people pay for.

2u

Suggested relative size. 1u means 1% of the money you set aside for betting, so a $2,000 bankroll makes 2u a $40 bet. Type your bankroll in the box at the top of this page and every tag converts to dollars for you. Sized by how big our edge is (quarter Kelly), capped at 3u so no single fight can hurt you. No tag means no edge at today's price: pass. New to all of this? The two minute guide explains it in plain English. Analytics, not betting instructions.

SHALLOW SAMPLE

The pick has thin UFC data behind it and our number disagrees hard with the market. We show it anyway and tell you to size with care. Honesty beats polish.

room 71% w/ brain

How the membership's own calls split on the fight, once at least three members have called it. Social proof, not science. The model does not take votes.

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Fighter Name

Your call. Members tap either corner on every fight to log their own pick. Calls lock at midnight UTC going into fight day, then get graded in public on the Beat the Model leaderboard, next to the brain's record. Bragging rights only, no money involved.

locked Jul 12, 03:00 UTC

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